By
Joseph J Tuttle
I’d like to thank all of you that have been writing in, and/or calling me, to tell me
how much you enjoy reading something new on my blog site, everyday. So, with that being said; I’m now opting to scrap the “weeks worth of regurgitation”. Plus, I’ve honestly had something new to write about over the last few days. Because, as most of you know, I’m always trying to teach.
Here’s today’s lesson for the day….
As most of you already know, I talk ad nauseum about the drastic form reversals (DFR’s), but, I haven’t talked a lot about the Drastic Line Reversals! DLR Games, are the best games to start handicapping, for the weekend ahead. Allow me to provide all of you, with an example.
Example:
Saturday, Oklahoma was favored by five, at Nebraska. They went on to lose that game (outright) by a final score of (10-3). Now after scoring a meager (3) points in a 60 minute contest; how are the oddsmakers justified, in making them an 18 point favorite this Saturday, versus Texas A&M?
Granted, the game is a home game for Oklahoma, and last year’s game was played in college station Texas (in which Oklahoma won; 66-28). But (in losing last week versus Nebraska), the Sooners accomplished something quite amazing when they lost last week; they held Nebraska to 1 of 14 on third-down conversions. Then, found a way to lose by seven points; after they accomplished (a relatively better) 5 of 18, on those same third-down situations.
I’ve looked at a lot of box scores in my 39 years on planet Earth, and to lose to a team that was 1 of 14 on third-downs, is inexcusable!
So, let’s get back on point: why are the Sooners favored by 18, this Saturday?
Well, it might have something to do with last year’s final score: The Sooners won last year’s meeting by a final score of (66-28), as previously mentioned. And in said game, they (Texas A&M), found themselves down 28-0, before they could blink!
I’m talking like early second quarter, down by 28!!
And, If memory serves me correctly (and it does), it was a prime time TBS telecast, with an unusual start time for football game being played in the CST Zone. Again (if memory serves me correctly); last year’s meeting started at 9 or 10 o’clock Eastern standard Time. Saturday, they’ll be playing @ 6:00CST. That alone should help their concentration levels.
Both teams are (5-4), and play in a conference where you need (7) wins to go to a decent (high paying) bowl game. If the Sooners do win; there remaining schedule consist of a game at Texas Tech, and a home game versus #17 Oklahoma St. Those are very probable losses, if they play like they did Saturday, at Nebraska.
So, the likelihood of them going (2-1 or 3-0), isn’t very probable. And A&M on the other hand, will almost certainly finish-up @ (1-2), get their much needed 6th win, and go Bowling for small dollars; even if they lose on Saturday. Looking ahead, is a practice/discipline that most sports bettors seldomly employ!
Just another shining reason to pay me; to do the proverbial “brain work” for you!
So, in 13 point format: I’m making a strong recommendation; for everyone to take (who is thinking of wagering a 4-team/13pt teaser) Texas A&M +31. Furthermore, in accordance with my productive scoring model, this particular play has a 98% chance of winning, @ (+31)!!!! The oddsmakers are on crack, and this line is at least 10 or 11 points too high!!!
In closing, the bottom line is this: The kid replacing Sam Bradford (Landry Jones) is a nightmare! And as most of you already know, I’m a numbers guy. Landry Jones simply doesn’t take care of the football (17/11), is his touchdown/interception ratio. Whereas Jerrod Johnson (the Texas A&M quarterback), leads the conference in this category. His touchdown/interception ratio, is a gaudy (21/4)!!!!
Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle