Something that I Teach in all of My Sports Betting Books
A huge part of “Line Interpretation” that I try to convey in my books is also a mantra of mine: “Box Scores Don’t Lie!”
When the Pacers and Knicks met for the first time this season (11/04/09); the total attached to said game was (226.5), and the game went on to by a very easy under. The final score was Indiana 101 / Knicks 89.
And at the writing of this post (2:37EST) the total attached for tonight’s contest is (217). So, the first and most obviously question becomes: Is the 9.5 adjustment really enough; after their first meeting stayed under by 37 points?
My answer: I believe it is, and now I’ll elaborate.
You see, in meeting #1 on November 4th, these two teams combined for an abysmal 12 of 47 from behind the 3-point line, or a whopping 25.5%! Additionally, the Knicks only scored (33) total 2nd half points; after scoring (56) in the first half. THAT’S NEARLY A 41% “REGRESSION RATE, FROM ONE HALF TO ANOTHER!
“The Norm” (when a sub-.500 team scores 50 or more in the 1st half), is somewhere in the neighborhood of 18 to 20%. So there’s (12) more points (from their 190 meeting) we can safely assume; will be scored in tonight’s contest.
190 + 12 = 202. But wait….What about the awful 3-point shooting in their first meeting (of 25.5%); shouldn’t we assume some marginally better percentage? YES WE SHOULD!
The two teams combined seasonal averages is the barometer from which we should go by, but in conjunction with the overall league average of 38%. In this case, that percentile (combined) is @ 31%, or 5.5% higher/better than their first meeting. And, another 7% tacked onto the 5.5% = 12.5%.
In meeting #1 there were (36) total points scored from 3-point land, and as previously-mentioned; there was a combined 3-point FG% of 25.5. Now, if we add that additional 12.5 to the 25.5, we arrive at a 38-percentile for tonight’s game.
In meeting #1 there were (47) 3-pointers taken. So, making an assumption of (50) for tonight’s contest isn’t that drastic. If a total of (50) 3-pointers are shot (tonight) @ 38%, that equates to (19) makes. 19 x 3 = 57, and that would be (21) more points than in meeting #1!!!!
202 + 21 = 223, which equals an OVER-217 for tonight’s contest!!!
But (as per usual), I’m on the Ov-209 as a part of a 3-team/8pt teaser bet.
p.s. If you’d like the other (2) teams that I’m using in tonight’s 3-team/8pt teaser bet; you can receive the entire configuration (via email), for a mere $8.99. Just pay through PayPal on my www.totallyteasersonly.com
site. www.lifetimesportspicks.com is hitting at a rate of 67%. But, in the past 10-days, the site has a record of (10-3).
Below, are links to my top-selling sports betting booklets, which are currently selling on Amazon.com.
My Best-Selling Hoops Book: http://budurl.com/max3
So You Think You Can Gamble, On Sports?: A Lifetime of Lessons from a Professional Gambler (Revised) (Paperback)
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The Professional Handicapper: Advanced Teachings In The Ways To Properly Forecast College & Pro Football (Paperback)
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Football Betting the Tuttle Way: Tease Me and Please Me: A Book for the Serious Football Bettor (Paperback)
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Tuttle Math Football Prospectus: College Football Selections For Sept. 12th Thru Sept. 20Th 2008 (Paperback)
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My Page one on Amazon
http://budurl.com/4×62
Betting Baseball ‘09: The Secrets That Professionals Won’t Talk About, Until Now!(Paperback)
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83% Winners: An Easy To Understand System: That Consistently Produces 83% Winning Selections In College Or Pro Football (Paperback)
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PAGE 2 AMAZON
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My Best-Selling Hoops Book:
Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle
