Tuttlerules's Blog

As a very basic rule of thumb, I don’t involve myself in any NBA games until after everybody’s played four games.

And there’s a reason for this: You see, whatever a team does within their first four games (from a Points Per Game perspective) is what they’ll do for the remainder of the season. So, after those first four games are played; I’m then able to establish a baseline (no pun intended), for each team in the NBA. Additionally (again, the basic rule of thumb), most teams only improve by about 5 to 6% from this establish baseline, from game 5 all the way through game 82, if at all.

Below, is a pretty wonderful example of what I’m talking about. The Sacramento Kings averaged precisely 101 points over their first four games. And in their last five, they’ve gone onto average 108. Now, a 6% improvement from 101 would be just under 108….SHOCKING!!!!

Now, let’s take their opponent for tonight, the Chicago Bulls: The Bulls started their first  four games on an average PPG of 88 points per game. And over the last five, they’ve had a marginal  improvement up to 90 points per game. A 1.7% improvement, obviously means there’s more in the proverbial tank,
for the Bulls. Not only for tonight, but for the remainder of the season.

Kings: 101..(1-3)….108….(4-1)
 Bulls: 88..(2-2)     90….(3-2)

And tonight, versus a team like Sacramento (a team that’s really not known for their defensive prowess), I suspect the Bulls will break 90 for fun, and possibly even 100. Which means, in 3-team/8pt teaser format,  one should be in love with the over 190!!!!

There’s a very old saying in the world of gambling: “Figures don’t lie, and liars figure.” Just take a look at these two teams over their last five games? Sacramento is averaging 108 and the Bulls are averaging 90. Add those two numbers together, and you’ll reach an aggregate of 198. This happens to be the natural line/total for tonight’s contest, again, SHOCKING!!!!

In closing this blog (and for the record, it’s roughly 8 hours until tipoff), I’m feeling sort of generous, and I want to leave you with one more little tip. A huge part of my success in gambling, is my ability to “forecast”.

Allow me to show you an example of what I’m talking about. Let’s assume for the moment that I’m correct in  my assumptions, and tonight’s game goes well over the 198 total: If indeed this happens, there is a great likelihood that the Kings will have broken 100 for the sixth straight time! So, in their next game, I  will make the assumption that they won’t. And if I’m correct (about tonight’s game), then, I’m almost positive, that they will play an under in their next outing. And, it’s also safe to assume that I might be “correct” in assuming that they will not break 100, in their next contest. Agree?

 p.s. If you’d like the other (2) teams that I’m using in tonight’s 3-team/8pt teaser bet; you can receive the entire configuration (via email), for a mere $8.99. Just pay through PayPal on my www.totallyteasersonly.com
site.

 www.lifetimesportspicks.com is hitting at a rate of 67%. But, in the past 9 days, the site has a record of (10-2), and last night the computer picked a 2-team/7pt teaser of: BALT-4.5 with the Under-46  (W)

Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle